Bears vs. Commanders: Justin Fields throws all over on...

The Chicago Bears are struggling, but quarterback Justin Fields had a strong performance. The team's head coach is under pressure. Fields is expected to excel in the passing game against the Washington Commanders.

The Chicago Bears are currently facing a disastrous season, with their recent loss highlighting their struggles. Despite quarterback Justin Fields having an exceptional game, the team still found a way to lose. The turning point came when head coach Matt Eberflus decided to go for it on fourth down instead of taking a 3-point lead, leading to a 24-0 run by the Denver Broncos. However, amidst the disappointment, there is a silver lining in Fields' performance. He threw for 335 yards and had an 80 percent completion rate, proving that he is not the issue for the Bears.

The focus now shifts to Eberflus, who is under immense pressure. The upcoming game against the Commanders is crucial for him. If the Bears win, his job may be safe, at least for the time being. However, a loss could result in him being replaced, with his belongings waiting for him in cardboard boxes at the Bears' facility. In light of these circumstances, I want to highlight a player prop that I believe offers value.

Considering Fields' strong start and his ability to excel in the passing game, I expect him to continue his success against the Commanders. Their defense ranks 23rd in DVOA against the pass and has allowed 300+ passing yards in games against Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts. Their other opponents were quarterbacks of a lower caliber, and the Commanders' rookie cornerback Emmanuel Forbes has struggled to adapt to the NFL level.

Fields has often been labeled as a run-first quarterback who struggles with deep passes. However, this perception is not entirely accurate. While he is indeed a dynamic runner, he has also shown improvement in the pocket and has demonstrated his ability to move the ball downfield through the air. Comparing his last two seasons, there are several positive trends in Fields' performance. His turnover-worthy play rate has decreased, and he is releasing the ball faster by 0.4 seconds. This may seem like a small difference, but it can significantly impact a play.

Considering these factors, I believe the current passing-yards number for Fields is too low. It currently sits around 189 to the mid-190s, but I believe it should be closer to 200. In three out of four games this season, Fields has surpassed 210 passing yards. The only exception was their loss to the Chiefs. Moreover, Fields' pass attempts per game have significantly increased compared to last season, and the Bears are once again entering the game as underdogs, which suggests a negative game script.

Given these circumstances, I anticipate that the Bears will struggle to establish a strong ground game against Washington's solid rush defense. Instead, they should focus on exploiting the Commanders' weaknesses in the aerial attack and explosive plays. Therefore, I recommend betting on Fields to continue his success through the air on Thursday night.

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