Nancy Turner
Sep 13, 2023 - 05:20

Yankees-Red Sox Prediction: September 12 Picks & Odds

Get ready for an exciting matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox as they face off in a historic rivalry. The game features two starting pitchers with potential for major regression, making it an unpredictable and high-scoring game. Don't miss out on our MLB picks and predictions for this game.

In the highly anticipated matchup between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, both teams are facing some pitching concerns heading into Game 1. The Red Sox, currently in fourth place in the AL East, will be hosting the fifth-place Yankees in the first installment of this four-game series. Due to a rainout on Monday, this game will serve as the first of a doubleheader on Tuesday.

The Yankees will be starting right-handed rookie Randy Vasquez, who has shown promise with a 2-2 record, 2.36 ERA, and 1.16 WHIP in his seven appearances this season. However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is likely to occur. With a 5.54 xERA and .251 xBA, Vasquez may struggle against the potent Boston lineup. The Red Sox rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS.

On the other side, the Red Sox will send right-hander Nick Pivetta to the mound. Pivetta has a 4.54 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 34 appearances this season, indicating that he may also be vulnerable. His average exit velocity, barrel%, and hard-hit% rank in the ninth percentile or lower, suggesting that further regression is likely. Pivetta has historically struggled against the Yankees, with a 7.23 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 12 career appearances against them.

Considering the pitching matchup and the hot Boston lineup, it is reasonable to expect a high-scoring game to kick off the doubleheader. The Red Sox have seen 10 or more total runs scored in 20 of their past 23 games. While both pitchers are likely to give up runs, Pivetta may be able to limit the damage better than Vasquez. The Yankees' lineup has been underperforming, ranking in the bottom third of the league in several offensive categories. Their bullpen is their only advantage, but with a doubleheader on the horizon, they will rely on Vasquez to go deep into the game.

In terms of betting, the Red Sox opened as -136 favorites and have remained at that price. This initial line reflects Vasquez's success so far in his rookie campaign, but it is expected to move in Boston's favor based on his concerning underlying metrics and the Yankees' inferior lineup. The total runs scored opened at 10 and has stayed at that number. Given the high-scoring nature of the Red Sox's recent games and the pitching matchup, it wouldn't be surprising if the line moved to 10.5 before the game. However, the weak Yankees lineup may cause a buy-back if the line does move.

Ultimately, with Vasquez's potential regression and the Red Sox's powerful offense, Boston is favored to defend their home diamond in this historic rivalry. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Yankees will be looking to pull off an upset to start this series on a high note.