Texas vs. Alabama College Football Prediction: Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

Alabama dominates in Week 1, covering the spread, while Texas struggles but shows potential. Texas seeks revenge against Alabama in Week 2.

In Week 1, Alabama had an impressive victory over Middle Tennessee State, winning by a score of 56-7 and covering the 39.5-point spread. This win adds to Nick Saban's impressive record of 14-2 against the spread in Week 1 as head coach of the Tide. One standout player for Alabama was Jalen Milroe, who won the starting quarterback position and proved himself to Saban by recording three passing and two rushing touchdowns in the same game, a feat that no other Alabama quarterback has achieved before. On the other hand, Texas did not cover the 35.5-point spread in their Week 1 game against Rice, winning by a score of 37-10.

Despite Alabama's strong performance in Week 1, I believe that Texas has the potential to give them a close and competitive contest. It's important not to judge either team solely based on their Week 1 performances. Alabama's victory came against a Middle Tennessee State team that is projected to finish in the bottom half of their conference. Additionally, Middle Tennessee State is in the process of replacing several key offensive starters, including their quarterback and top receivers, as well as their cornerbacks on defense. Texas, on the other hand, chose to rest their starting quarterback and other key players late in their game against Rice, in order to prepare for their upcoming matchup against Alabama.

Looking at the overall picture, Texas has a strong team on both sides of the ball. They have 10 returning starters from last year's squad, including quarterback Quinn Ewers, all five offensive line starters, and their top three receivers. They have also added talented players like Adonai Mitchell to their receiving corps, making it one of the best in the Big 12. While they will miss Bijan Robinson in the backfield, they have enough talent to make up for his production. Texas has had back-to-back top-five recruiting classes, which will help in filling any gaps in their lineup. Ewers, in particular, has the potential to shine this season, especially with the support system around him and another year in the same system. He has reportedly worked on improving his footwork in the offseason, which could have a positive impact on his deep ball.

Texas's defense is working on replacing five starters, but they have made some strategic moves in the transfer portal to strengthen their lineup. Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has already shown his ability to improve the defense, as he turned a unit that finished 99th in points per game allowed in 2021 to 27th in that metric. With another year under Kwiatkowski's guidance, the defense as a whole should continue to improve. The defense is also due for positive regression, as they ranked low in turnovers forced and sacks last season despite leading the nation in pressure rate. With a similar level of pressure, they should be able to generate more negative plays.

Overall, Texas is a team that is due for positive regression. Despite winning eight games last year, they struggled in one-possession games and suffered a close loss to Alabama as three-touchdown underdogs. This season, Texas has the advantage of revenge, as the entire team from that loss returns with a determination to perform better. On the other hand, Alabama may face some challenges early in the season due to the lack of experienced personnel. They lost 12 starters from last year's squad, including key players like Bryce Young and Will Anderson. The team also had to replace both coordinators, which raises some concerns about the new hires and their impact on the team's performance.

In conclusion, the upcoming matchup between Alabama and Texas in Week 2 promises to be an exciting and closely contested game. Texas has the advantage of experience and a strong team on both sides of the ball. Alabama, despite their talent, may face some early season struggles as they adjust to new personnel and coaching staff. With the PRO model projecting a close game, it's a good opportunity to bet on the more experienced Texas team, especially with the added advantage of being a touchdown underdog.

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