"Joe Biden Should Be Concerned About the Impact of Donald Trump"

The first New York Times/Siena College poll on the 2024 presidential campaign shows a close race between Biden and Trump. Biden has stronger support among Democrats but lacks enthusiasm. Hispanic voters show potential vulnerability. Trump's legal issues and Biden's son's investigations could impact the race. Age remains a factor.

If we were to fast forward to the 2024 election today, it appears that we can anticipate a closely contested race between the former and current presidents. The initial New York Times/Siena College poll on the state of the presidential campaign provides some insight into the situation. President Joe Biden has seen an improvement in his standing compared to a year ago, but he remains in a neck-and-neck battle with former President Donald Trump.

According to the poll, neither candidate has a majority of support, with both Biden and Trump tied at 43 percent each in a hypothetical rematch. However, the poll also reveals that Biden's support among Democrats may not be as strong as it seems. While 30 percent of voters expressed their intention to vote for the sitting president, they still hoped that the Democrats would nominate someone else.

Interestingly, only 20 percent of respondents said they would be "enthusiastic" if Biden were the party's nominee in 2024, while 51 percent claimed they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic. Surprisingly, 26 percent even expressed enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, despite her lack of popularity among most Americans.

On a positive note for President Biden, the New York Times reports that he has managed to escape the political danger zone he found himself in last year when a majority of his party wanted a different nominee. Democrats have now largely accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if many still prefer someone else.

However, Biden's support among Democrats is considered "soft support" for an incumbent president, with only 64 percent backing him. In comparison, just 13 percent indicated their support for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and only 10 percent for Marianne Williamson.

The lack of fervor for Biden may explain his relatively weak performance in fundraising, particularly with small donors, as indicated by a recent quarterly report from his campaign.

The New York Times/Siena College poll also reveals that Biden is leading Trump among key groups that helped secure his victory in 2020, such as women, suburban voters, college-educated white voters, and Black voters. However, there are early signs of potential vulnerability with Hispanic voters, who have shown a shift towards Republicans in recent elections.

Turnout could be a crucial factor, as while Latinos are increasingly supporting the GOP, a significant portion still vote for Democrats. This was evident in the Democrats' ability to maintain their Senate majority in the 2022 midterms.

Although Biden and Trump are currently in a "dead heat," it is important to recognize that a lot can and will happen between now and the primaries, not to mention Election Day. Trump is facing multiple indictments, and while he currently leads the rest of the GOP field, his legal troubles may prove insurmountable, despite their positive impact on his poll numbers.

Likewise, the investigations into Hunter Biden, President Biden's son, are unlikely to fade away anytime soon.

Age could also play a significant role for both candidates. President Joe Biden will be 82 years old by Election Day, while former President Donald Trump is just four years younger. The age of the candidates remains a concern for many Americans.

In the words of the late political pundit Charles Krauthammer, "I'm back on the bottle of wine, women, and song." At this point, that might be the safest bet of all.

Peter Suciu, a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, is a seasoned Michigan-based writer with an extensive portfolio of over 3,200 published pieces spanning a twenty-year career in journalism. His areas of expertise include military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. For updates, you can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.

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